New Seat Details - Ludlow and Leominster

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ludlow and Leominster been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	34,902	61.4%
LAB	12,440	21.9%
LIB	6,643	11.7%
Green	2,415	4.2%
OTH	434	0.8%
CON Majority	22,462	39.5%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Ludlow and Leominster: Map

List of old seats forming part of Ludlow and Leominster

Old seat: Herefordshire North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Herefordshire North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Herefordshire North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Herefordshire	Arrow	2,798	Ludlow and Leominster	1,513	308	186	0	77	0	0	45	2,129
Herefordshire	Backbury	2,242	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,085	317	193	0	72	0	0	38	1,705
Herefordshire	Bircher	2,916	Ludlow and Leominster	1,328	392	251	0	95	0	0	50	2,116
Herefordshire	Bishops Frome and Cradley	2,433	Malvern and Ledbury	1,214	231	149	0	167	0	0	23	1,784
Herefordshire	Bromyard Bringsty	2,548	Malvern and Ledbury	1,191	380	217	0	82	0	0	40	1,910
Herefordshire	Bromyard West	2,222	Malvern and Ledbury	1,069	431	209	0	72	0	0	35	1,816
Herefordshire	Castle	2,388	Ludlow and Leominster	1,170	287	184	0	71	0	0	41	1,753
Herefordshire	Credenhill	2,276	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,239	426	238	0	83	0	0	44	2,030
Herefordshire	Hagley	2,752	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,385	444	257	0	92	0	0	47	2,225
Herefordshire	Hampton	2,666	Malvern and Ledbury	1,391	299	182	0	72	0	0	36	1,980
Herefordshire	Holmer	1,283	Hereford and South Herefordshire	502	172	102	0	35	0	0	18	829
Herefordshire	Hope End	2,805	Malvern and Ledbury	1,426	306	201	0	80	0	0	38	2,051
Herefordshire	Kington	2,445	Ludlow and Leominster	979	345	508	0	79	0	0	21	1,932
Herefordshire	Ledbury North	2,436	Malvern and Ledbury	1,079	397	229	0	79	0	0	40	1,824
Herefordshire	Ledbury South	2,385	Malvern and Ledbury	1,079	362	342	0	73	0	0	34	1,890
Herefordshire	Ledbury West	2,479	Malvern and Ledbury	1,292	483	255	0	88	0	0	42	2,160
Herefordshire	Leominster East	2,544	Ludlow and Leominster	1,074	507	237	0	286	0	0	22	2,126
Herefordshire	Leominster North and Rural	2,832	Ludlow and Leominster	1,424	457	220	0	228	0	0	21	2,350
Herefordshire	Leominster South	2,465	Ludlow and Leominster	988	496	234	0	253	0	0	39	2,010
Herefordshire	Leominster West	1,997	Ludlow and Leominster	795	332	274	0	190	0	0	16	1,607
Herefordshire	Mortimer	2,542	Ludlow and Leominster	1,181	333	199	0	78	0	0	52	1,843
Herefordshire	Old Gore	2,424	Malvern and Ledbury	1,278	277	170	0	69	0	0	32	1,826
Herefordshire	Queenswood	2,556	Ludlow and Leominster	1,244	407	224	0	83	0	0	46	2,004
Herefordshire	Stoney Street	410	Hereford and South Herefordshire	161	63	31	0	37	0	0	6	298
Herefordshire	Sutton Walls	2,392	Ludlow and Leominster	1,238	379	202	0	76	0	0	39	1,934
Herefordshire	Three Crosses	2,658	Malvern and Ledbury	1,408	308	179	0	71	0	0	33	1,999
Herefordshire	Weobley	2,725	Ludlow and Leominster	1,361	356	201	0	81	0	0	42	2,041
	Total	64,619		31,094	9,495	5,874	0	2,769	0	0	940	50,172

The full details of these calculations are given on the Herefordshire North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ludlow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ludlow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ludlow				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Shropshire	Alveley and Claverley	3,338	Bridgnorth and The Wrekin	1,749	448	144	0	26	0	0	0	2,367
Shropshire	Bishop's Castle	2,747	Ludlow and Leominster	1,243	505	327	0	114	0	0	0	2,189
Shropshire	Bridgnorth East and Astley Abbotts	5,322	Bridgnorth and The Wrekin	2,428	943	464	0	60	0	0	0	3,895
Shropshire	Bridgnorth West and Tasley	5,433	Bridgnorth and The Wrekin	2,511	985	457	0	58	0	0	0	4,011
Shropshire	Broseley	3,545	Bridgnorth and The Wrekin	1,313	1,204	173	0	38	0	0	0	2,728
Shropshire	Brown Clee	3,015	Ludlow and Leominster	1,774	414	108	0	30	0	0	0	2,326
Shropshire	Chirbury and Worthen	2,302	Shrewsbury	1,078	416	281	0	27	0	0	0	1,802
Shropshire	Church Stretton and Craven Arms	7,141	Ludlow and Leominster	3,224	1,288	654	0	89	0	0	0	5,255
Shropshire	Clee	3,477	Ludlow and Leominster	1,685	629	365	0	35	0	0	0	2,714
Shropshire	Cleobury Mortimer	5,614	Ludlow and Leominster	2,993	942	236	0	71	0	0	0	4,242
Shropshire	Clun	3,014	Ludlow and Leominster	1,368	515	343	0	119	0	0	0	2,345
Shropshire	Corvedale	2,991	Ludlow and Leominster	1,773	332	96	0	27	0	0	0	2,228
Shropshire	Highley	2,574	Ludlow and Leominster	1,230	616	245	0	32	0	0	0	2,123
Shropshire	Ludlow East	2,935	Ludlow and Leominster	1,130	851	334	0	113	0	0	0	2,428
Shropshire	Ludlow North	2,942	Ludlow and Leominster	1,176	553	326	0	105	0	0	0	2,160
Shropshire	Ludlow South	3,047	Ludlow and Leominster	1,331	655	419	0	43	0	0	0	2,448
Shropshire	Much Wenlock	3,406	Ludlow and Leominster	1,680	541	270	0	40	0	0	0	2,531
Shropshire	Worfield	2,944	Bridgnorth and The Wrekin	1,749	311	94	0	25	0	0	0	2,179
	Total	65,787		31,435	12,148	5,336	0	1,052	0	0	0	49,971

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ludlow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ludlow and Leominster

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Ludlow and Leominster
Herefordshire	Arrow	2,876	Herefordshire North	1,513	308	186	0	77	0	0	45	2,129
Herefordshire	Bircher	2,857	Herefordshire North	1,328	392	251	0	95	0	0	50	2,116
Herefordshire	Castle	2,366	Herefordshire North	1,170	287	184	0	71	0	0	41	1,753
Herefordshire	Kington	2,611	Herefordshire North	979	345	508	0	79	0	0	21	1,932
Herefordshire	Leominster East	2,871	Herefordshire North	1,074	507	237	0	286	0	0	22	2,126
Herefordshire	Leominster North and Rural	3,173	Herefordshire North	1,424	457	220	0	228	0	0	21	2,350
Herefordshire	Leominster South	2,714	Herefordshire North	988	496	234	0	253	0	0	39	2,010
Herefordshire	Leominster West	2,171	Herefordshire North	795	332	274	0	190	0	0	16	1,607
Herefordshire	Mortimer	2,488	Herefordshire North	1,181	333	199	0	78	0	0	52	1,843
Herefordshire	Queenswood	2,708	Herefordshire North	1,244	407	224	0	83	0	0	46	2,004
Herefordshire	Sutton Walls	2,611	Herefordshire North	1,238	379	202	0	76	0	0	39	1,934
Herefordshire	Weobley	2,754	Herefordshire North	1,361	356	201	0	81	0	0	42	2,041
Shropshire	Bishop's Castle	2,980	Ludlow	1,243	505	327	0	114	0	0	0	2,189
Shropshire	Brown Clee	3,167	Ludlow	1,774	414	108	0	30	0	0	0	2,326
Shropshire	Church Stretton and Craven Arms	7,155	Ludlow	3,224	1,288	654	0	89	0	0	0	5,255
Shropshire	Clee	3,695	Ludlow	1,685	629	365	0	35	0	0	0	2,714
Shropshire	Cleobury Mortimer	5,775	Ludlow	2,993	942	236	0	71	0	0	0	4,242
Shropshire	Clun	3,193	Ludlow	1,368	515	343	0	119	0	0	0	2,345
Shropshire	Corvedale	3,033	Ludlow	1,773	332	96	0	27	0	0	0	2,228
Shropshire	Highley	2,890	Ludlow	1,230	616	245	0	32	0	0	0	2,123
Shropshire	Ludlow East	3,307	Ludlow	1,130	851	334	0	113	0	0	0	2,428
Shropshire	Ludlow North	2,940	Ludlow	1,176	553	326	0	105	0	0	0	2,160
Shropshire	Ludlow South	3,333	Ludlow	1,331	655	419	0	43	0	0	0	2,448
Shropshire	Much Wenlock	3,446	Ludlow	1,680	541	270	0	40	0	0	0	2,531
	Total	77,114		34,902	12,440	6,643	0	2,415	0	0	434	56,834

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ludlow and Leominster. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Philip Dunne (CON)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	77,114
Turnout:	73.7%

Ludlow and Leominster: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ludlow and Leominster: Overview

Introduction